Assessment of forecast accuracy for the facade market. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the facade market size forecast was 1.9%. This error
was also low when broken down by market segment, where it averaged 1.6%.
We calculated forecast accuracy using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which measures how much PMR’s forecasts differed, on average, from actual values:
where n is the number of periods (years) for which the variable is forecasted.
The assessment of forecast accuracy was based on data from the published report “The Facade Market in Poland in 2022” and its historical versions. The size
For our client PMR—one of the largest manufacturers and distributors of professional cosmetics in Poland, under the Fale Loki Koki brand—we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the professional face and body cosmetics market, with a particular focus on the competition and the growth potential of new segments.
Project Objectives
The client initiated a collaboration with PMR to explore the possibility of entering a new market. The main objective of the project was to analyze the opportunities and risks associated with this decision, as well as to identify key market segments and product groups with the greatest potential. As a result, Fale Loki Koki was able to make informed and strategic decisions regarding the development of its product offering and the building of a competitive advantage in the dynamic beauty sector.
Project Details
The project was carried out using several advanced research techniques that provided a comprehensive picture of the market:
Competitive Analysis Module (Desk Research): We conducted a detailed analysis of over 70 websites and social media profiles of professional cosmetics brands. Additionally, to verify the data, we used the Mystery Client technique, which allowed us to obtain reliable information about our competitors’ market practices.
B2B Research Module: We conducted a CATI survey of a sample of 300 beauty salons, which enabled us to identify the main product categories, purchasing factors, and sources of information about suppliers.
B2C Research Module: 1,000 individual customers participated in the CAWI survey. The goal of this part was to determine what percentage of adult Poles purchase professional face and body care products and to identify their purchasing preferences
Project Results
The client received a comprehensive report that included:
A description of market segments, broken down by player size and the potential of each segment.
Detailed analyses of the offerings, activities, and brand image of key competitors.
An analysis of pricing policy in the professional cosmetics segment and its retail resale.
Identification of trends related to the use of professional cosmetics in salons and models of collaboration between brands and salons.
A detailed analysis of the opportunities and risks associated with launching a new brand on the market.
What benefits did the PMR project bring?
Understanding the market structure and the position of competitors, which enabled better planning of development activities.
Identification of the most promising segments and product groups, which made it possible to focus investments and marketing efforts.
Gaining an understanding of the expectations of beauty salons and individual customers, which helped us better tailor our offerings and communication.
Building a competitive advantage by leveraging the latest market trends and business practices
Project Summary
PMR’s analysis of the professional face and body cosmetics market provided a solid foundation for Fale Loki Koki’s strategic decision-making. Thanks to a comprehensive research approach and reliable recommendations, the client gained the tools needed for dynamic growth and to build a strong position in the beauty market.
At PMR, the accuracy of our forecasts is the foundation upon which we build trust with our business partners. In the cosmetics market, we verified the accuracy of our forecasts using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)—a metric that shows how much PMR Forecasts differ from actual values.
Assessment of Predictive Accuracy for the Cosmetics Market
We calculated the accuracy of the PMR Forecasts using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which measures how much the PMR Forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:
Challenges and Transparency of the Methodology
Verifying the accuracy of the forecasts presented some challenges—some of the historical data was updated to reflect the latest information and to verify previous estimates of market value. Although these changes do not significantly affect the overall market picture, they may impact the accuracy of the MAPE calculations.
Two Approaches to Error Analysis
To ensure full transparency, we present the results in two formats:
Adjusted MAPE—after eliminating the impact of changes in historical data. This provides a more reliable picture of the accuracy of the forecasts.
Unadjusted MAPE—calculated directly based on data and PMR Forecasts for 2019–2021 and current data. The results may be slightly overstated due to the aforementioned changes in historical data. The magnitude of the error resulting from these changes is also presented.
Key Findings
In both approaches, the forecast errors for the cosmetics market are very low—most often well below 3%. Even without adjusting the historical data, the error does not exceed this value. This means that, from a technical and statistical standpoint, PMR Forecasts are highly accurate.
Why is this important for policymakers?
Reliable forecasts are the foundation of effective strategic planning, investment, and risk management. Thanks to PMR Forecasts, decision-makers can make informed decisions based on analyses that accurately reflect market conditions.
Summary
PMR Forecasts for the cosmetics market are highly accurate, and our methodology ensures the transparency and reliability of our data—regardless of changes in historical data. This is a value that directly translates into business success for our partners.
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For the market leader in financial services in Poland, we conducted a market study on leasing services to help the company develop an effective growth and marketing communications strategy.
Project Objectives
The client set several tasks for us:
an analysis of the popularity of leasing as a form of financing among Polish small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs),
identifying the factors that companies consider when selecting a lessor,
an assessment of the quality of leasing services offered in Poland,
gathering information on plans for international expansion in the SME sector.
Project Details
In order to answer all of our client’s questions, we decided to conduct a market survey of leasing services using the CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) method. We conducted over 400 interviews with a randomly selected sample.
We selected representatives of small and medium-sized private-sector companies as respondents. We reached out to business owners in the manufacturing, retail, construction, and service industries. We spoke exclusively with employees directly involved in the process of selecting a leasing service provider.
Project Results
Our client used the results of market research and analysis to tailor its current marketing communications to the expectations of the small and medium-sized enterprise sector.
He also developed an action plan that included information on:
the requirements of customers from various sectors of the economy,
the needs of companies based on the number of employees,
factors that influence the choice of a leasing provider,
companies' satisfaction with the quality of services provided by other lessors,
factors that increase the likelihood of using leasing.
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A client of PMR Consulting & Research—a global manufacturer of medical equipment—commissioned us to find a business partner operating in the pharmacy distribution channel. It was crucial for the client to identify, evaluate, and secure a partnership with a company with which the client could establish a long-term collaboration.
Project Details
The project consisted of two phases. As part of the first phase, based on the client’s criteria for selecting a business partner, the PMR team compiled a long list of distributors operating in the pharmacy channel.
The companies presented to the client met all the requirements—including, among other things, experience in working with pharmacies, geographic reach, product portfolio, and several other aspects.
The result of this phase was the compilation of a comprehensive list of companies that met the client’s criteria, along with brief profiles containing information about their product portfolios, the scope of services they offer, and their contact information.
As part of the second phase of the project, the list of potential partners was narrowed down to the companies that best met the client’s expectations. Consultants from PMR Consulting & Research then contacted these companies to determine their interest in the client’s offer and their willingness to establish a partnership.
The second phase of the project concluded with the preparation of a list of selected companies that the PMR team recommended as the most promising business partners for future collaboration.
Project Results
After the project was completed, the client was able to quickly and efficiently establish a relationship with a new partner and successfully expand its sales network in the pharmacy channel in Poland.
The market information provided by PMR, along with detailed company profiles, helped the client make strategic business decisions that will shape the direction of its business development in Poland in the coming years.
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An international IT solutions provider was planning to develop a growth strategy for Central and Eastern Europe for the coming years. To begin work on the strategy, it needed a better understanding of the market potential in Belarus. It therefore commissioned PMR to conduct a study on the use of financial and accounting systems among Belarusian companies.
Project Objectives
The purpose of the study was:
gaining an understanding of the IT solutions used in the field of finance and accounting,
assessing the extent to which accounting departments use innovative IT tools,
identifying the needs in this area among companies from various market sectors.
Project Details
The PMR team conducted more than 60 computer-assisted interviews* with representatives of accounting departments and management at Belarusian companies.
As part of the study, market information critical to the client was collected, such as:
the financial and accounting solutions currently in use,
user preferences,
unmet needs regarding these solutions,
key factors in selecting a supplier and the procurement process,
Identification of key competitors,
the distribution and sales model used by major competitors,
Key success factors in the Belarusian market.
The research process went very smoothly, allowing the client to receive detailed results in a short amount of time.
Project Results
The information provided by PMR on the market, trends, and competition enabled the client to gain a thorough understanding of the local market’s requirements and to assess the potential benefits and risks associated with entering the Belarusian market.
CATI – Computer-Assisted Telephone Interview
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For one of the world’s leading providers of insurance and retirement products, our team conducted a comprehensive analysis of the treatment costs for the most common diseases in Poland. The project also included an assessment of the costs of treating rare diseases, which for many patients involve very high, often unplanned expenses.
Project Objectives
The purpose of the study was to provide the client with reliable, up-to-date data on the costs of treating the diseases most likely to occur in Poland—from the patient’s perspective. The analysis was also intended to cover rare diseases, which generate exceptionally high costs for patients and their families. This information was essential for supporting the client’s business activities, including the preparation of a publicly available report as well as marketing and sales materials.
Project details:
Our team carried out the project using two main methods. We completed the following:
Desk research – an analysis of available secondary sources, industry reports, and system data on reimbursed and non-reimbursed costs.
Expert interviews—in-depth conversations with representatives of patient organizations and physicians—that provided unique, non-public information on the actual out-of-pocket expenses incurred by patients in Poland.
Thanks to our team’s many years of experience in the healthcare sector, the project was carried out smoothly and efficiently, despite the limited availability of open data on out-of-pocket medical costs.
Project Results
Based on our research, we’ve put together a checklist:
A clear overview of healthcare costs in Poland—both those reimbursed by the National Health Fund (NFZ) and those paid directly by patients (e.g., medications, rehabilitation equipment, private visits, and procedures).
An analysis of the costs of treating the most common diseases and selected rare diseases—broken down by cost type, treatment duration, and funding sources.
Conclusions and recommendations from experienced analysts—practical guidance on the factors affecting costs and possible solutions to reduce the financial burden on patients.
Report ready for publication—used by the client for both informational and marketing and sales purposes.
What did the customer gain?
The project enabled the client to:
A better understanding of the actual costs of treatment from the patient’s perspective—key to designing insurance products and educational campaigns.
Building a reputation as a market expert—by publishing a report and sharing knowledge with a broad group of stakeholders.
Support for marketing and sales activities—by providing reliable data and analyses that build customer confidence in the products offered.
Summary
PMR’s analysis of the treatment costs for the most common diseases in Poland serves as a reliable tool for insurance companies and the healthcare industry, enabling them to make sound business decisions and effectively help patients prepare for unexpected healthcare expenses.
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