At PMR, the accuracy of our forecasts is the foundation upon which we build trust with our business partners. In the cosmetics market, we verified the accuracy of our forecasts using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)—a metric that shows how much PMR Forecasts differ from actual values.

Assessment of Predictive Accuracy for the Cosmetics Market

We calculated the accuracy of the PMR Forecasts using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which measures how much the PMR Forecasts differed, on average, from the actual values:

Challenges and Transparency of the Methodology

Verifying the accuracy of the forecasts presented some challenges—some of the historical data was updated to reflect the latest information and to verify previous estimates of market value. Although these changes do not significantly affect the overall market picture, they may impact the accuracy of the MAPE calculations.

Two Approaches to Error Analysis

To ensure full transparency, we present the results in two formats:

• Adjusted MAPE—after eliminating the impact of changes in historical data. This provides a more reliable picture of the accuracy of the forecasts.

• Unadjusted MAPE—calculated directly based on data and PMR Forecasts for 2019–2021 and current data. The results may be slightly overstated due to the aforementioned changes in historical data. The magnitude of the error resulting from these changes is also presented.

Key Findings

In both approaches, the forecast errors for the cosmetics market are very low—most often well below 3%. Even without adjusting the historical data, the error does not exceed this value. This means that, from a technical and statistical standpoint, PMR Forecasts are highly accurate.

Why is this important for policymakers?

Reliable forecasts are the foundation of effective strategic planning, investment, and risk management. Thanks to PMR Forecasts, decision-makers can make informed decisions based on analyses that accurately reflect market conditions.

Summary

PMR Forecasts for the cosmetics market are highly accurate, and our methodology ensures the transparency and reliability of our data—regardless of changes in historical data. This is a value that directly translates into business success for our partners.

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Need more data? At PMR, we advise and support your company's operations.

Need more data? At PMR, we advise and support your company's operations.

Maciej Gazda

Head of Forecasting

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