The value of the OTC market in Poland—defined as sales of medications, dietary supplements, and dietary products for special medical purposes—totaled over 14 billion PLN in 2019 (including both pharmacy and non-pharmacy sales). This represented a year-over-year increase of nearly 7%, according to the latest PMR report titled “The OTC Market in Poland 2020: Market Analysis and Growth Forecasts for 2020–2025.” According to PMR, 2020 will be a strong year for this market segment, despite the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

OTC products will continue to grow despite the economic slowdown in 2020.

Following continued solid economic growth in 2019 (4.0% in real terms, year-over-year), we expect GDP to decline this year due to the spreading pandemic, growing uncertainty in the external environment, and a deteriorating domestic situation. In a pessimistic scenario, the decline in GDP in 2020 could even reach double digits. It comes as no surprise, however, that the pharmaceutical sector is one of the least affected by the current economic situation. A survey conducted by PMR in April 2020 shows that in the pharmaceutical sector, the percentage of companies that have not only maintained but are currently expanding their operations is the highest, at 17% (compared to other sectors surveyed—the average across all sectors is 9%).

Base, Pessimistic, and Optimistic Scenarios

Therefore, according to PMR Forecasts, growth in the OTC market will be positive and in the range of several percent in both the base-case and pessimistic scenarios. In the case of dietary supplements, sales of products that support immunity will rise, but with a decline in consumer purchasing power, sales growth in other categories may be slower than in the previous year. A survey conducted by PMR in April 2020 shows that the more “non-essential” a pharmaceutical product is, the higher the percentage of people who report having stopped or reduced their purchases of that product during the recent pandemic. In addition, patients may turn to cheaper products, which could benefit private-label brands. Overall, we forecast that the growth rate of the entire OTC drug and dietary supplement market will exceed 6% in 2020 (base case scenario).

COVID-19 will affect online sales of OTC products

The coronavirus pandemic may lead to changes in the distribution structure of OTC products. The online channel is benefiting from the current situation. Although pharmacies remained open, some people—due to factors such as the shift to remote work or restrictions on other outings—made purchases through e-commerce channels instead of traditional ones. The impact of the pandemic was also evident in general retail stores and at gas stations. The restrictions that were put in place resulted in fewer visitors and, consequently, a decline in purchases—especially impulse buys, including OTC products. Some of these people may also have made purchases through e-commerce channels.

A survey conducted in April 2020 by PMR among companies operating on the Polish market shows that, among the sectors surveyed, the coronavirus pandemic has had the most positive impact on online sales in the retail and pharmaceutical/healthcare sectors. At the same time, it should be noted that pharmacies will remain the primary place for purchasing OTC products, although their market share may decline in favor of online sales.

Hume’s Institute stands for knowledge. PMR Market Experts stands for experience. When we join forces, you gain a competitive edge. See how we can support your business.

Hume’s Institute stands for knowledge. PMR Market Experts stands for experience. When we join forces, you gain a competitive edge. See how we can support your business.

Justyna Zagórska

Senior Market Analyst

Industry Report

Pharma & Healthcare

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