Closed stores, fear, rising unemployment, and the lack of a clear outlook for the economy’s return to normal have led to a shift in consumer habits, according to the report “Coronavirus and Changes in Consumer Behavior in Poland 2020” prepared by PMR.

The so-called COVID-19 lockdown will last about two months in Poland, as the government is already implementing measures to revive the economy, however, there is a high probability that in certain sectors (especially mass events), the restrictions will remain in place for several more months, as is the case under the plan announced in Germany.

Governments’ current focus on protecting human life will be put to a severe test. As time goes on, the economy is increasingly exposed to job losses, business bankruptcies, and a decline in government revenue. Moreover, although work on a vaccine and effective drug therapy is ongoing, these should not be expected in the coming weeks. Social problems and the economy’s inability to function at full capacity have not only temporarily affected changes in consumer behavior; these changes will not only persist but will often even intensify.

By how much will consumption fall?

Fundamental changes in Poles’ shopping habits will, of course, also affect economic indicators, including the consumption rate. PMR has developed three scenarios:

1. a lockdown lasting about two months, followed by a rapid reopening of the economy;
2. a lockdown lasting about two months, but with a gradual reopening of the economy;
3. Scenario 2, but with a resurgence of the pandemic and at least some restrictions in the fall.

In all of these scenarios, consumption will decline year-over-year, and according to our forecasts, the growth rate for 2020 will range from approximately -1% to -8%. Furthermore, additional significant negative developments can also be expected, as the projected drought in the coming months is likely to lead to rising food prices, thereby exacerbating the current declines.

Almost every consumer stocks up on groceries

Interestingly, nearly half of the consumers surveyed for the PMR report had bought more in bulk than usual over the past three weeks, but nearly as many were buying the same amount in bulk as before. Additionally, when comparing the results of surveys conducted by PMR in 2019 as well, it can be said that reports of increased stockpiling are just as widespread as those of more frequent stockpiling caused by the introduction of a near-total ban on Sunday shopping, although the products being purchased differ. Currently, the most significant reason for increased stockpiling is the desire to keep outings and store visits to a minimum.

Non-food shopping limited to a minimum

In the final weeks of the pandemic in the country, with the exception of cosmetics, most non-food purchases (clothing, footwear, home furnishings, furniture, and home appliances and electronics) have been scaled back, postponed, or, in some cases, abandoned entirely by customers.

It’s interesting that when buying these types of products online, we’re more likely to choose delivery to a package locker. On the other hand, looking at the market as a whole, 2020 will certainly bring a significant correction—even greater than that seen in overall consumer spending. Additionally, some purchases that are currently being postponed will be abandoned entirely.

When will services resume?

Although restaurants are trying to attract customers and the range of delivery options has expanded significantly, the first three weeks of the official pandemic in Poland did not favor an increase in delivery orders from restaurants. More than half of those surveyed said they ordered delivery less often than usual during that period, and fewer than one in ten said they ordered food delivery more frequently.

The report addresses the question of what will happen in a few months, and it reveals consumers’ fears, particularly in the areas of services and entertainment. For example, 43% of Poles will completely give up on trips abroad, and an additional 26% want to postpone them.

For the purposes of this report, PMR conducted a survey in April 2020 among a representative sample of 1,300 consumers. Respondents answered questions regarding, among other things, changes in their shopping habits in light of the COVID-19 pandemic and their plans for the coming months.

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Hume’s Institute stands for knowledge. PMR Market Experts stands for experience. When we join forces, you gain a competitive edge. See how we can support your business.

Karolina Szałas

Senior Market Analyst