Flu: 5.2 million cases in 2018—will there be fewer in 2019?

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Flu: 5.2 million cases in 2018—will there be fewer in 2019?

The flu in Poland has set another record. In 2018, the number of confirmed and suspected flu cases totaled 5.2 million. The incidence rate has been rising year after year for many years now. For example, in 2013, there were 2 million fewer cases.

It appears, however, that 2019 may bring a reversal of this trend. In January and February, the number of cases was nearly 14% lower compared to the same period the previous year. Overall, during the 2018–2019 season (defined as the period from October through February), the number of cases fell by nearly 11% year-over-year, totaling nearly 2.8 million.

One reason for the lower number of cases may be the increase in vaccination rates. This is due to the inclusion of the flu vaccine in the “Leki 75+” reimbursement program. Since July 2018, seniors have been reimbursed 50% of the cost of the vaccine. According to data from PEX PharmaSequence, between October 2017 and September 2018, pharmacies sold nearly 0.5 million packages of flu vaccines. By comparison, 50,000 fewer packages were sold the previous year. To date, according to GIS data, only about 4% of Poles have been vaccinated against the flu.

According to PMR data, between 2018 and 2023, the market for OTC products used to treat colds and the flu (medications and dietary supplements) will grow at an average annual rate of approximately 5%. In general, this segment has exhibited sinusoidal growth patterns for many years now, despite a steady increase in the number of cases.

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