By 2030, the Polish data center market will triple its power capacity

News

By 2030, the Polish data center market will triple its power capacity

Data centers are one of the fastest-growing—yet energy-intensive—sectors of the economy. PMR Forecasts indicate that by 2030, operators in Poland will have 500 MW of capacity. The main challenges for the industry in the coming years are related to regulatory factors that emphasize a low carbon footprint, sustainable development, and the need for detailed reporting. The growth of the wholesale market and the expansion of AI are key trends.

Data Center Market Size and Forecasts

According to PMR data, in 2023, the total capacity available on the commercial data center services market in Poland was nearly 173 MW. Between 2016 and 2019, capacity growth slowed. However, between 2021 and 2023, the market began to grow much more rapidly. Over the course of three years, the Polish data center market doubled its capacity. Last year was an all-time record in this regard, with growth of 43%.

It is worth noting that PMR Forecasts indicate that the capacity of the Polish data center market will nearly triple between 2024 and 2030, from 173 MW to over 500 MW. This increase will be greater than what the growth in net floor area would suggest (CAGR of 18% from 2024 to 2029).

Poland is a hub for development across the entire Central European region and by far the largest and fastest-growing market. Global data center market leaders—led by Equinix (Poland), EdgeConneX, DATA4, and Vantage Data Centers—are already present in the Polish market, along with hyperscale investors (Microsoft, Google) and financial investors (funds and banks investing in the data center industry).

In 2023, the ratio of leased space to available space for the entire market was higher for the largest facilities than the market average for the first time. This is due to the fact that large projects were delivered with virtually 100% of the space pre-leased (EdgeConneX, DATA4). The market leader, Atman—which is currently developing a new project—also has a very high occupancy rate.

Geographic Distribution of Facilities

Share of individual cities in the supply of commercial space for colocation and hosting in Poland (%), January 2024

Warsaw	67.9%
Krakow	8.0%
Poznań	6.9%
Wrocław	4.9%
Gdańsk	2.1%
Katowice	1.9%
Łódź	1.9%
Toruń	1.3%
Szczecin	1.1%
Others	4.0%

Note: Estimated figures. We have assumed that the 123 properties identified represent 91.2% of the total net leasable area available on the market and 95.5% of the gross leasable area.
Source: PMR, 2024

Warsaw generates by far the greatest demand for data center services, including colocation, from the largest wholesale customers. It is also the most competitive market and the one requiring the greatest investment; land prices are also the highest there. The largest number of data centers operates in Warsaw. The scale of investment—and thus the size of the data centers—is also clearly the largest. Two out of three of the top 45 data centers in Poland are located within the Warsaw metropolitan area. This is reflected in Warsaw’s 68% share of the commercial space supply for colocation and hosting (in terms of power capacity, the share is even higher). Investments currently underway and planned for the near future suggest that Warsaw’s share will continue to grow.

Warsaw’s Share of the Commercial Colocation and Hosting Space Supply in Poland (%), 2013–2023

The Polish Data Center Market: Key Challenges and Trends

Currently, the main challenge facing the industry is power availability—an absolutely critical component of the DC market’s growth. The problem is becoming increasingly acute, particularly in light of the growing concentration of capital, the development of the wholesale market, and inquiries regarding the Warsaw market.

Despite having less exposure to one-time factors, such as the pandemic or the war in Ukraine, the Polish data center market—particularly in terms of investment projects—is experiencing increased global demand for the construction and modernization of data centers. The high availability of capital (oversupply) and demand from hyperscalers mean that investors in Poland often face delivery delays—despite its dynamic growth, the Polish market remains relatively small. As a result, it is not as high a priority for manufacturers (judging by the scale of orders) as the Asian markets, the U.S., or the largest European markets.

AI Drives Data Center Growth

Artificial intelligence, and generative AI in particular, will play a key role in driving productivity growth in data centers. The growing demand for AI will force operators to scale up new data centers, which in turn will stimulate further efficiency gains. This growth will necessitate the reconfiguration of data centers through the construction of larger, higher-capacity campuses and increased facility density.

The Critical Impact of ESG and EED Regulations

In addition to its business goals, the data center sector is setting goals related to climate neutrality. In addition to existing investments, particularly in energy efficiency (PUE), economic, regulatory, and environmental pressures will continue to drive data centers toward green energy and the management of their carbon footprint. Most data center operators worldwide recognize the need to move toward renewable energy sources.

Newly constructed facilities must be designed to minimize energy and water consumption, incorporate systems that support low emissions, and utilize recovered heat. This will lead, among other things, to the emergence of alliances and joint projects between heat suppliers and data center operators, who currently use waste heat, at best, only for their own needs. Heat recovery for external use is practically nonexistent on the Polish market, but such investments will certainly emerge.

On March 14, 2024, the European Commission adopted a delegated act under the EED that sets out the data center reporting mechanism in great detail. Annex VII lists, in addition to contact details and general information, as many as 30 specific indicators that may be subject to monitoring.

Hume’s Institute stands for knowledge. PMR Market Experts stands for experience. When we join forces, you gain a competitive edge. See how we can support your business.