Building retrofits are no longer viewed solely as a response to rising energy costs or the technical needs of buildings. The EPBD Directive gives it strategic importance—for real estate portfolio owners, contractors, materials manufacturers, designers, and institutions financing investments. The change will be evident not only in individual renovation projects but also in how investments are planned and property values are assessed.

For the construction market, the most important question is no longer whether renovations will be carried out, but in which segments demand will emerge the fastest and what skills will prove necessary. The EPBD increases the importance of data quality regarding the building stock, energy efficiency, the durability of solutions, and the execution capabilities of companies operating in the renovation sector.

Why is the EPBD changing the outlook for the renovation market?

The recast Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) sets the direction for renovation policy in the European Union. Its goal is to gradually reduce emissions from buildings and improve their energy performance, with the aim of achieving a zero-emission building stock by 2050. Specific measures will be implemented through national regulations; Member States generally have until May 29, 2026, to transpose the directive. The actual pace of change in Poland will also depend on implementing regulations, financing instruments, and the economic situation.

From the perspective of the renovation market, it is crucial to shift the focus from isolated measures to renovations designed in a phased and coordinated manner. In practice, investments that combine improved insulation of building envelopes, modernization of systems, building automation, and energy consumption management are becoming increasingly important. Not every project will cover all these areas, but their interconnection will increasingly determine the economic viability of an investment.

The directive also strengthens the role of sectors involved in investment preparation. Before work begins, audits, inventories, technical documentation, alternative analyses, and risk assessments are required. This means that the benefits of increasing renovation activity will be felt not only by construction contractors.

Which construction sectors will benefit the most from modernization?

Multifamily Buildings—A Large Stock and the Need for Phased Planning

Multifamily housing will remain one of the most important areas of the renovation market. A significant portion of the housing stock requires improvements to the performance of exterior walls, replacement of windows and doors, modernization of internal systems, or streamlining of energy consumption billing and management. The scale of such projects favors companies capable of carrying out work in buildings occupied by residents.

In this segment, combining construction work with solutions that mitigate organizational risks takes on particular importance. The modernization of facades, roofs, or common areas of building systems requires a well-planned schedule, communication with residents, and quality control. Contractors offering repeatable processes, proven technologies, and appropriate design resources can gain a competitive edge.

The market will also need tools that allow building owners and managers to compare investment options. What will matter is not only the cost of the work but also the predictable energy efficiency, the durability of the materials used, the availability of crews, and the ability to carry out the project in phases.

Non-residential properties—pressure for real estate portfolio efficiency

Non-residential buildings—including office, retail, warehouse, hotel, educational, and public-use facilities—will be a particularly significant area of change. Owners and users of these properties will evaluate modernization projects not only in terms of energy bills but also in terms of rental appeal, financing requirements, and asset value preservation.

For larger facilities, automation, utility consumption monitoring, ventilation system upgrades, regulation of heating and cooling systems, and equipment management may play a relatively greater role. This segment will favor companies that integrate construction, installation, and digital expertise.

It is worth noting that investment decisions in commercial real estate are made based on a long-term economic outlook. Therefore, it will be important to demonstrate a project’s impact on operating costs, the facility’s ability to generate revenue, and technological risk. The construction product itself is increasingly rarely sufficient as a selling point.

Single-family homes—a fragmented market, yet sensitive to the availability of financing

Renovations of single-family homes will remain a significant part of the market, but their growth will depend heavily on financing conditions, the availability of contractors, and confidence in support programs. This is a fragmented market where decisions are often made locally and depend on the ability to carry out the work without placing an excessive burden on the household budget.

Changes to the rules governing subsidies for heat pumps and solar panels may affect the structure of demand; however, in the context of the EPBD, the development of projects that combine improving a building’s energy efficiency with the rational selection of systems will be more important. From the suppliers’ perspective, the opportunity lies in offering solutions that are easy to understand, reasonably priced, and can be implemented in logical stages.

Which industries and services will benefit from the growing demand?

The most direct beneficiaries will be contractors specializing in thermal retrofitting, facade work, roof insulation, window and door replacement, and system upgrades. Demand may also extend to manufacturers of building materials, distributors, designers, energy auditors, appraisers, and suppliers of automation systems.

However, one should not assume that every entity operating in the renovation industry will automatically benefit from these changes. Companies that can document the quality of their work, ensure the availability of materials, manage schedule risks, and collaborate with other participants in the investment process will gain a competitive edge.

• manufacturers of insulation, windows and doors, and facade systems;
• contractors specializing in thermal modernization and installation work;
• design firms, auditors, and energy performance specialists;
• suppliers of energy management and building automation systems;
• financing institutions and entities that develop economic models for investments.

Will the building renovation alone be sufficient?

In many cases, no. The EPBD emphasizes the importance of a data-driven approach and improving a building’s energy performance. A renovation that enhances a building’s aesthetics but fails to address its actual technical needs and energy consumption may not deliver the expected value in the long term.

Therefore, preparatory services—such as audits, technical condition assessments, energy demand analyses, technology selection, and cost-benefit modeling—are becoming increasingly important. This is an area where specialized consulting and design firms can thrive, especially if they can translate technical parameters into the language of investment decisions.

In practice, it is advisable to distinguish three stages: identifying modernization needs, preparing investment options, and implementation and monitoring of results. This approach reduces the risk of haphazard purchasing decisions and allows for better budget management.

How should one assess the potential of the building modernization market?

An assessment of the market’s prospects should consider more than just the number of buildings requiring renovation. Other key factors include the ownership structure of the building stock, the location of the properties, the availability of financing, the capabilities of local contractors, material prices, and the technical feasibility of carrying out the work.

When planning to enter the renovation segment or expand your service offering, it is worth analyzing, first and foremost:

• the predominant building types in the region served;
• the most common technical and energy-related needs of customers;
• the level of competition and the availability of qualified crews;
• the role of institutional investors, homeowners’ associations, and property managers;
• the possibility of selling design, construction, and maintenance services as a single package.

This requires up-to-date sector data and demand growth scenarios. Industry reports can be helpful in market analysis, as they allow for an assessment of segment structure, investor behavior, and competition. In Poland, studies conducted by, among others, the independent research agency Hume’s Institute can be particularly useful.

How to prepare a market offering following the implementation of the EPBD?

Construction companies and technology providers should develop their offerings around the investor’s specific challenges, rather than focusing solely on individual products. For some clients, rapid savings in operating costs will be key; for others, it will be improving the quality of the space, reducing the risk of losing tenants, or the ability to schedule work without disrupting operations.

It is advisable to build a modular offering. This allows you to start with an assessment and the most critical actions, and then carry out further stages of retrofitting as the budget becomes available. This approach is particularly useful in multifamily, public, and commercial buildings.

It will also be important to monitor macroeconomic scenarios, material prices, and the scale of investments in individual segments. Market forecasts help assess whether the increase in demand will be sustained, localized, or dependent on regulatory and financial changes.

In summary

The EPBD may become one of the most important factors shaping the renovation market in the coming years. Significant opportunities will arise from the retrofitting of multifamily and non-residential buildings, as well as from services supporting the preparation, financing, and monitoring of investment outcomes.

• The importance of retrofits that improve a building’s energy efficiency will grow;
• Contractors combining expertise in construction, installations, and project management will gain an advantage;
• Audits, projects, and feasibility studies will become an important segment;
• market advantage will be determined by the ability to assess demand for specific types of buildings and in specific regions.

PMR Market Experts publishes regular reports on the construction and real estate sectors, including analyses of the building renovation and modernization market in Poland. When making investment decisions, combining market data with an assessment of regulations, competition, and realistic implementation possibilities is particularly valuable.

How can regulatory changes be translated into business decisions?

To effectively capitalize on the modernization trend, the EPBD must be viewed not only as a legal change but, above all, as a source of future demand in specific segments. A well-prepared strategy should identify the customer groups, technologies, regions, and sales channels with the highest potential.

If you need to assess the potential of the renovation market, identify attractive segments, or develop scenarios for expanding your product offering, it’s worth seeking expert advice. To translate EPBD requirements into sound market decisions, contact PMR Market Experts.